SRA Media Release - MORE BALANCED CONDITIONS
PACE OF PRICE GROWTH SLOWS WITH A SHIFT TO MORE BALANCED CONDITIONS
Following exceptionally strong sales over the last three months, July sales in the province trended down to 1,528 units. Last July sales hit a new record high for the month, so while sales did record a year-over-year decline of 15 per cent, levels are still well above typical levels seen in July. Nonetheless, year-to-date sales are at record high levels thanks to the strong start to the year.
Prior to the start of the pandemic, active listings were high in comparison to sales and prices were trending down. “While covid likely caused many to re-evaluate their housing needs, reductions in lending rates combined with earlier price declines supported much of the growth in sales,” comments Chris Guérette, Saskatchewan Realtors® Association CEO. “At the same time supply levels could not keep pace, which means the market shifted to favour the sellers as the months of supply hit levels not seen in nearly a decade.”
Recent price gains have brought more sellers back to the market as active listings trended up in July relative to last month. Slowing sales combined with monthly supply gains cause the months of supply to rise relative to the low levels experience over the previous four months. This has helped ease some of the upward pressure on prices recorded earlier in the year.
In July, the total residential benchmark prices remained relatively stable compared to last month but was still nearly eight per cent higher than last year’s levels. While price gains have been significant this year, they have not offset earlier declines and remain below peak prices achieved in 2014. Prices have generally trended up across most regions in the province, however activity does vary by location, property type and price range. “At the end of the day, consulting an expert on your next move in real estate helps to better position yourself with understanding the local reality in comparison to provincial trends,” comments Guérette.
The housing market has seen incredible demand growth throughout the pandemic despite job loss and rising unemployment levels. While low interest rates are expected to continue to fuel demand growth, higher prices are cooling some of that growth, helping shift the market back to more balanced conditions. “Even with some recent price gains, Saskatchewan is still one of the most affordable and attractive places in which to invest and call home.”
Sales were down 11% in Saskatoon (going from 539 to 480), up 67% in Martensville (going from 15 to 25), and down 42% in Warman (going from 43 to 25). In Humboldt, sales were down 37% (going from 19 to 12), while in the larger region, sales were down 14% (going from 756 to 653). Sales in Saskatoon were 23% above the 5-year average (and 18% above the 10-year average), 76% above the 5-year average (and 32% above the 10-year average) in Martensville, and 3% below the 5-year average (and 6% below the 10-year average) in Warman. In Humboldt, sales were 20% above the 5-year average (and 7% above the 10-year average), while in the larger region, sales were 21% above the 5-year average (and 17% above the 10-year average). Year-to-Date (YTD) sales in Saskatoon rose 47% over last year (increasing from 2,317 to 3,407), rose 56% in Martensville (increasing from 106 to 165), and rose 48% in Warman (increasing from 143 to 211). Year-to-Date (YTD) sales in Humboldt rose 53% over last year (increasing from 19 to 12), while YTD sales in the larger region rose 46% (going from 3,208 to 4,686).
Sales volume was down 10% in the Saskatoon, going from $191.5M to $172.5M in 2021 (27% above the 5-year average, and 23% above the 10-year average). In Martensville, sales volume was up 86%, going from $4.8M to $8.9M (94% above the 5-year average, and 47% above the 10-year average) and in Warman, sales volume was down 44%, going from $17.1M to $8.9M (7% below the 5-year average, and 7% below the 10-year average). Sales volume was down 33% in Humboldt, going from $3.9M to $2.6M (14% above the 5-year average, and 6% above the 10-year average), while in the region, sales volume was down 13%, going from $258.4M to $225.6M (28% above the 5-year average, and 24% above the 10-year average). YTD sales volume in Saskatoon was $1,247.6M (an increase of 57% from last year), $56.2M in Martensville (an increase of 94% from last year), and $54.0M in Warman (an increase of 52% from last year). YTD sales volume in Humboldt was $20.9M (an increase of 60% from last year), while in the region, YTD sales volume was $1,638.5M (an increase of 57% from last year).
In Saskatoon, the number of new listings in July 2021 fell 7.5%, going from 819 to 758 (2.7% below the 5-year average and 4.5% below the 10-year average). The number of new listings fell 20.7% in Martensville, going from 29 to 23 (39.7% below the 5-year average and 40.1% below the 10-year average) and fell 29.7% in Warman, going from 37 to 23 (48.2% below the 5-year average and 49.8% below the 10-year average). In Humboldt, the number of new listings fell 42.4%, going from 33 to 19 (20.8% below the 5-year average and 15.6% below the 10-year average), while in the region, new listings fell 13.9%, going from 1,206 last year to 1,039 this year (9.1% below the 5-year average and 10.1% below the 10-year average). YTD new listings in Saskatoon rose 23.2% (going from 4,541 to 5,596), rose 29.0% in Martensville (going from 179 to 231), and rose 8.6% in Warman (going from 256 to 278). In Humboldt, YTD new listings fell 25.3% (going from 162 to 121), while in the larger region, the number of new listings to date rose 14.9%, going from 6,621 to 7,608. Active listings fell 0.1% in Saskatoon (down from 2,387 to 2,385), fell 11.8% in Martensville (down from 110 to 97), fell 19.6% in Warman (down from 138 to 97), fell 28.6% in Humboldt (down from 112 to 80), and fell 8.9% in the region (down from 3,947 to 3,595).
Months of supply in Saskatoon stood at 5.0 months (which is 12.2% above the level last year and 34.3% below the 5-year average), while the sales to listing ratio was 63.3%, suggesting that market conditions are balanced. Months of supply in Martensville stood at 3.9 months (which is 47.1% below the level last year and 64.7% below the 5-year average), while the sales to listing ratio was 108.7%, suggesting that market conditions favour sellers. Months of supply in Warman stood at 3.9 months (which is 38.4% above the level last year and 51.5% below the 5-year average), while the sales to listing ratio was 108.7%, suggesting that market conditions favour sellers. Months of supply in Humboldt stood at 6.7 months (which is 13.1% above the level last year and 55.1% below the 5-year average), while the sales to listing ratio was 63.2%, suggesting that market conditions are balanced. Months of supply in the larger region stood at 5.5 months (which is 5.5% above the level last year and 38.3% below the 5-year average), while the sales to listing ratio was 62.9%, suggesting that market conditions are balanced.
Homes in Saskatoon stayed on the market an average of 41 days in July, down 3.2% from 42 days last year (but below the 5-year average of 49 days and below the 10-year average of 43 days). Homes in Martensville stayed on the market an average of 45 days, down 54.1% from 99 days last year (but below the 5-year average of 77 days and below the 10-year average of 65 days) while homes in Warman stayed on the market an average of 45 days, down 33.8% from 68 days last year (but below the 5-year average of 56 days and below the 10-year average of 57 days). Humboldt saw Homes stay on the market an average of 123 days, up 82.8% from 67 days last year (and above the 5-year average of 85 days and above the 10-year average of 84 days), and homes in the region were on the market an average of 47 days, also down from an average of 54 days last year (and 19.9% below the 5-year average).
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI)—a more accurate measure of house price trends—varied across different centres in the region. Saskatoon saw the residential benchmark price rise 8.6% year-over-year, going from $305,100 to $331,400. The residential benchmark price in Martensville rose 11.4% (going from $359,400 to $400,400) and rose by 11.8% in Warman (going from $371,100 to $400,400). The residential benchmark price in Humboldt rose 8.4% (going from $193,800 in 2020 to $210,000 this year).
